Archive for the ‘Macro’ Category

Institutional Sector Weightings

August 15, 2009

Interesting blog post by Bespoke Investment Group

Bespoke Investment complied a list from endowments to hedge funds to mutual funds, highlighting the sector weights based on the 13F statements.

According to their previous posting on April 2009, (link)

the sectors that were most underweight in the list were:

  • Financials
  • Industrials
  • Telecommunications
  • Materials
  • Consumer Discretionary

In their August 2009 post, you can see that the investment management community had moved their weighting of financials, technology, healthcare as their top three sectors, making up of over 47% of their holdings. (link)

Commentary:

When there are big shifts in sector holdings, one can generally assume that these sectors will be lifted as a rising tide lifts all boats. There is definitely value in tracking 13F statements to see where the institutional money flows from sector to sector overtime.

As you can recall, there was a time in 2008-2009 where holding financials was the “dumb” play, anyone who bought and held financials must have been dumb because of all the chaos going on with Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual going under.  Because of the uncertainty nobody wanted to touch any of these companies with a 10 ft pole, however due to the uncertainty, one can argue that securities were very mispriced.

Chart for SPDRs (SPY)

With the market recovered close to October 2008 highs, its much more uncertain from here on out where the market will go.  One must remember the markets are forward looking and manic depressive.   Sometimes it pays to act as a contrarian and buy quality companies in a depressed sector.

Which is it? Deflation/Inflation

May 23, 2009

Over the past several months everyone has been thinking about one thing on their mind.  Deflation or Inflation?

Policy makers [Federal Reserve & Congress] are trying their best to implement the strategy of quantitative easing to get us out of the global credit crisis as quickly and smoothly as possible.

The policy makers argue that deflation is imminent and in order to avoid a decade of deflation (like Japan back in the day).  Declining asset values are perhaps the scariest thing policy makers. To have a lost decade like Japan did is probably something everyone would avoid, even if it means suffering inflation down the road.

One more interesting thing to note,

Although many policy makers will argue that deflation is the concern at hand, there is one policy maker who thinks differently.  President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Charles Plosser sees inflation higher than 2.5% in 2011.  Although Plosser does not vote on monetary policy this year, it’s still very prudent to hear opposing views, especially from someone in his position being so vocal about his dissenting views.

Hedge funds on the other hand, have taken the opposite view.   A lot of them have moved into commodities and gold fearing that inflation will rear its ugly head. Maybe not this year, but sometime soon.

The next entry will be on the Gold.

Some articles to look at:

  • UK Inflation Rate Dropped to 15 Month Low in April[Bloomberg]
  • Inflation falls but price rises exceed other big nations’[FT.com]
  • Deflation May Be Down, but It’s Not Out [WSJ]
  • Fed’s Plosser says inflation to increase, [Bloomberg]